Analysis of the impact of the EU carbon tariff trial operation on the export of chemical and plastic products in October
2023-09-28
From October 1, the EU Carbon Border Regulation Mechanism (CBAM) will be in trial operation, with a transition period until the end of 2025, and gradually full implementation from 2026 to 2034. According to CBAM, the EU will impose additional carbon border adjustment charges, known as "carbon tariffs", on certain products imported from abroad, such as cement, aluminum, fertilizer and steel.
On September 14, at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce of China, some media mentioned that although the EU side said that the purpose of the carbon border adjustment mechanism is to deal with the global climate problem, some analysts believe that the EU's move is to improve the competitiveness of its products. On the fairness of carbon tariffs, there has been a big dispute among international and EU industry organizations. First, the most-favoured-nation treatment principle of the World Trade Organization (WTO) proposes that the same products imported from different countries should not be discriminated against, while the national treatment principle requires that the same products imported and domestically produced should not be treated differently. However, EU CBAM obviously "discriminates" products from the perspective of carbon emissions; Second, according to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" in international climate governance, different countries should bear different degrees of responsibility for carbon emission reduction according to their actual conditions, but the EU CBAM transfers the cost of carbon emission reduction within the EU to developing countries in a disguised way. It can be predicted that the implementation of EU CBAM will still face multiple resistance in the future.
According to data from Eurostat, China will be the EU's second largest trading partner in 2022, with EU-China trade reaching 856.3 billion euros, up 22.8% year on year. Among them, EU imports from China reached 626 billion euros, up 32.1% year on year. Among the industries involved in CBAM, China's exports of organic chemicals, plastics and their products, steel and aluminum to the EU in 2022 are 34.99 billion euros, 17.52 billion euros, 5.71 billion euros and 5.33 billion euros, respectively, accounting for about 10% of China's total exports to the EU.
In terms of export volume, in 2022, the exports of China's steel and aluminum industries to the EU are 3.599 million tons and 952,000 tons, respectively, while the exports of cement and fertilizer industries to the EU are smaller. In 2022, China's exports of organic chemicals and plastics and their products to the EU were 3.499 million tons and 4.285 million tons, respectively.
Based on the carbon emission data of China's products (including electricity, transportation, etc.) and the average carbon price of 81 euros/ton in the EU in 2022, the carbon tariff to be paid by China's exports to the EU in 2022 is estimated: Plastics and their products amounted to 2.7 billion euros, organic chemicals amounted to 2.75 billion euros, steel products amounted to 1.29 billion euros, aluminum products amounted to 1.2 billion euros, fertilizer, cement and ammonia exports were low, and carbon tariffs were relatively low.
THE CHINA IMPORT AND EXPORT FAIR----ZHEJIANG HUAYANG
More than 60 chemical companies have entered China's top 500 Enterprises in 2023
